Summer Is Coming MAFIA -THE FORCES OF WINTER AND THE SPRINGTIME MARAUDERS WIN!

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S1x
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Post by S1x » Fri May 27, 2016 11:03 pm

o_o

okay

You are the only person who does not see a reasonable lynch target right now

Vote Scarecrow
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Erniewan
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Post by Erniewan » Fri May 27, 2016 11:54 pm

Yep, that was the message that I got. I know it doesn't prove his alignment, but he's obviously the message sender.

I'm going out of town tomorrow and probably won't be able to check until night, but hopefully you guys can figure stuff out.

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Post by The Missing Link » Sat May 28, 2016 5:40 am

Vote Count:
S1x (2): Shad, Random User, Daos
Scarecrow (1): Daos, S1x

Not Voting (4): I am nobody, Scarecrow, Shad, Erniewan

With 7 players remaining, it takes 4 to lynch.
The sun will set in approximately 39½ hours.
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Post by I am nobody » Sat May 28, 2016 9:59 am

So we have:

Dead:
March - ???
Tazy - Ascetic
Monstr - Vanilla

Alive:
Shad - Cop, effectively confirmed
SC - Messager, confirmed
Ernie/Me - Roles unclaimed, town
S1x - Bulletproof when only hit with kill, unconfirmed
Daos - Miller, unconfirmable
RU - JoaT-by-claim, unconfirmable

Possibly of note regarding S1x is that TML had an item called the Spinner in one of his games years ago that bounced all actions targetting a person to random other players. Something like that is a possible explanation for how Shad and SC appear to have hit different people despite both targetting S1x. Not sure that assumption has much utility, though - it'd at best mean S1x is somewhat less likely to be mafia than Daos/RU/SC, but playing with probabilities on that small of a scale is never a good idea.

SC being mafia seems highly unlikely since they'd have been messing with their own actions so much, so I think we've got pretty good chances by taking two shots into S1x/RU/Daos in something like that order.

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Post by Erniewan » Sat May 28, 2016 11:36 pm

^Yeah, that's what I meant by Nexus earlier. I don't think it's the case because he would have clarified that as soon as he was detected as mafia (unless it's a hidden ability).

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Post by I am nobody » Sun May 29, 2016 5:31 am

Not necessarily, because the Spinner could be used by one player on anyone else. If it's something like that, S1x might only have been bouncy last night and not known about it.

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Post by The Missing Link » Sun May 29, 2016 7:28 am

Vote Count remains unchanged since last time.

There are 13½ hours remaining in the day.
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Post by Scarecrow » Sun May 29, 2016 7:40 am

We haven't got long. I'm going with my gut and my read on daos from D1 onwards

VOTE: DAOS

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Post by Shad » Sun May 29, 2016 9:55 am

It's probably just S1x and Scarecrow and he lied about who he sent what to protect his partner.

Vote: S1x

Lynch the wolf peek people.[DOUBLEPOST=1464529716,1464529660][/DOUBLEPOST]Like if Scarecrow really sent that message and it ended up on Ernie, that suggests results were swapped, meaning Scarecrow should have more reason to believe I got a red on Ernie than anyone else in the game. Why is he voting Daos?[DOUBLEPOST=1464530057][/DOUBLEPOST]In case that reads funny:

I got a red peek on S1x. Scarecrow says he messaged S1x and Ernie received it. This should look from Scarecrow's POV like a bus driver instance, in which case he should think Ernie is mafia.

I think it's a lot simpler than that.

But if Scarecrow is town he knows something caused actions performed on S1x to be performed on Ernie instead. Why is he not diving on this?[DOUBLEPOST=1464530146][/DOUBLEPOST]Lynch order S1x Scarecrow RU Daos imo. Reevaluate entirely if S1x flips town.

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Post by Erniewan » Sun May 29, 2016 11:57 am

I guess the simplest answer is usually correct.
Vote: S1x

Of course if he is Town, this game just jumped into Lunatic Mode, and we will need everyone's activity to sort it out.

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Post by I am nobody » Sun May 29, 2016 11:57 am

Don't think there's much else to say. Vote: S1x

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Post by The Missing Link » Sun May 29, 2016 6:23 pm

Vote Count:
S1x (4): Random User, Daos, Shad, Erniewan

After the lack of a lynch yesterday, the Forces of Winter wasn't about to let today go without a fight. They seemed to make their decision early yet wanted to ensure that entire day would be put to use. And indeed it was. But as they put the noose around S1x's neck, they had to wonder if they were right. However, they wouldn't have to wait for long...
S1x was Rei Hino, Roleblocker, a member of the Summertime Mafia.
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NIGHT FOUR
You have approximately 50½ hours to send in your night actions (should you have any) for the night.

End of Night O'clock
AEST 12pm, Wednesday 1 June
AWST 10am, Wednesday 1 June
EDT 10pm, Tuesday 31 May
CDT 9pm, Tuesday 31 May
MDT 8pm, Tuesday 31 May
PDT 7pm, Tuesday 31 May


[USER=22385]@Heroine of the Dragon[/USER], [USER=17429]@Saria Dragon of the Rain Wilds[/USER], can you do the honours for S1x?
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Post by The Missing Link » Tue May 31, 2016 9:26 pm

No one could have suspected that he would have infiltrated the town of winter too. Then again, so long as he could balance the frost and the heat, he'd have been perfectly fine. But unfortunately he had to make a choice, and, by making that choice, he had submitted to playing their game. Though that was technically fine; "Kill or be killed," he always said. But he hadn't expected that that expression would come to bite him so soon.
Erniewan died last night. He was Mr. Freeze, a Forces of Winter Doctor.
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Though he originally was Flowey the Flower, a Springtime Marauders Dopplegänger.
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DAY FIVE
You have approximately 71½ hours until the sun sets.

End of Day O'clock
AEST 12pm, Saturday 4 June
AWST 10am, Saturday 4 June
EDT 10pm, Friday 3 June
CDT 9pm, Friday 3 June
MDT 8pm, Friday 3 June
PDT 7pm, Friday 3 June

With 5 players remaining, it takes 3 to lynch.

[USER=22385]@Heroine of the Dragon[/USER], [USER=17429]@Saria Dragon of the Rain Wilds[/USER], will you please add Erniewan to the graveyard, please and thank you?
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Post by Erniewan » Tue May 31, 2016 9:31 pm

Knew this would happen! Good luck, Town, hope you can put the pieces together!

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Post by Random User » Tue May 31, 2016 10:49 pm

Investigate anyone last night, Shad?

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Post by I am nobody » Wed Jun 01, 2016 5:19 am

I got SC's decidedly summer-sounding message.

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Post by Scarecrow » Wed Jun 01, 2016 7:12 am

I never sent you a message... I sent it to Shad.

VOTE: Ian

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Post by Shad » Wed Jun 01, 2016 7:30 am

Sup? Nice work Ernie.

RU's a villager.

Vote: Scarecrow

Could be Daos but I say we lynch this guy first.

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Post by I am nobody » Wed Jun 01, 2016 8:14 am

Vote: SC

Might've had a bit of doubt before your vote, but between that and not voting S1x, I'll be pretty shocked if this isn't game.

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Post by Shad » Wed Jun 01, 2016 8:16 am

Oh if Scarecrow flips wolf but the game doesn't end lynch Daos. There aren't going to be 3 wolves (possibly potential for four depending on how Ernie's role worked) and a miller in a 10 player game.

If Scarecrow flips town lynch Daos because he'll be the only player in the game who doesn't peek town.

Basically always lynch Daos tomorrow.

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